Trade Expectancy Calculator
Why Expectancy Beats Win Rate
Expectancy is the probability-weighted average of your outcomes: wins multiplied by their average size, minus losses multiplied by theirs. It is the single number that tells you whether a system makes money at all.
Win rate alone is misleading. A 40% win rate with a 3:1 payoff is profitable; the same win rate at 1:1 is not. Traders who optimise for hit rate usually end up cutting winners short and letting losers run, which quietly destroys expectancy while the win rate looks healthy.
Expectancy is not a forecast. It is measured on a sample, and costs, slippage and regime shifts push the live figure below the backtested one. Re-run it regularly and compare against your risk of ruin.
Related Tools
📚 Must Reads
Financial Literacy Basics
Key Concepts
Data Sources & Citations
How it is calculated
E = (W × avg_win) − (L × avg_loss)b = avg_win / |avg_loss|E = (p × b − q) × avg_lossContinue without starting over
Reading the number
Enter values to see a practical interpretation.
The tool uses only the inputs you set, with the formula published below.
Fees, taxes, provider rules and market movement can shift the outcome.
Reference example: p = 0.45, b = 2.2 → E = 0.54 × avg_loss per trade.
Reviewed August 21, 2026.
Primary references: CFTC — Performance reporting · NFA — Disclosure documents
Concepts connected to this tool
Was this calculator useful?
Explore the network
Frequently Asked Questions
Are these brokers regulated?
Regulation varies by the entity serving your country. Each listing points to the broker's own pages so you can confirm the licence that applies to you.
Do you hold client funds?
No. dangcash never touches deposits, trades or accounts - everything happens directly between you and the broker you choose.
How are offers ranked?
Rankings weigh regulation, pricing transparency, account fit and how recently each row was verified against the provider's source page.
How does dangcash make money?
Some links are affiliate links, so we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. Commissions never influence rankings, scores or editorial conclusions.